A victory for the Democrats could also fuel uncertainty and fierce opposition over a potential wealth tax, more regulations on business, and an overhaul of the health system, perhaps sparking fierce reaction from markets. As the 30th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall approaches, does the US have a consistent strategy and a unified alliance needed to address today’s challenges? ... Do the board and senior executives expect risk functions to align on top risks, risk prioritization and relative responsibilities? A small change in the polling process made it harder for some respondents to give credit for the same thing twice. In the best case, after a lapse of six to twenty-four months, an arbitration mechanism with a much-reduced mandate and a reformed—but also diminished in scope and authority—WTO may emerge as global supply chains erode. Clash of efficiency and ethics in new tech applications. Kim prefers a “muddle through” North Korean model, accelerating cybercrime to accumulate bitcoins and other illicit activities, boosting ties to Russia and China who are eroding sanctions, and incrementally building economic cooperation with South Korea. Rigged! more pressure from their citizens. Sign up to receive rapid insight in your inbox from Atlantic Council experts on global events as they unfold. For example, “succession challenges and the ability to attract and retain top talent” was cited as the third highest risk for 2020. For the first time this year, Willis Re was joined by Willis Towers Watson’s Thinking Ahead Institute in conducting the survey. Cybersecurity and cybercrime (up from two in 2019) Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses. And after thoughts of impending doom for several years, naysayers have recognized that there may well be greater resilience built into major cloud-based services than their prior systems. The coronavirus outbreak will weaken Iran, Iraq, and Syria. After several years of stable responses, our latest poll shows significant shifts in the risks that are most concerning. A deeper dive into the report, under operational risks, highlights a growing emphasis on “talent and culture,” which made up four of the top 10 risks. Several simmering conflicts, symptoms of a 2 Represents a new risk added to the 2020 survey. Download eBook: Top 10 Risk & Compliance Trends for 2020. The top 50% of companies have been growing at twice the GDP growth rate on the average, while the bottom 50% of companies have had near zero average annual growth. Read the 2020 Global Risks Report (GRR) report to see the bigger picture and learn more about the global risks that can impact your company and to build resilience toward these events. At the same time, reactions to Iranian overreach, with anti-Iran protests in Iraq, Lebanon, and internally against the Khamenei regime, help to push Tehran toward a new deal, limiting their regional influence, and dampening populist-driven change in the Middle East. Want to be the first to get up to speed on the meaning of big, breaking international developments? Baker McKenzie partnered with Risk.net in its annual ranking of the top operational risks for 2020. Top 10 business risks and opportunities – 2020 – Spanish (pdf) Download 2 MB T he fluctuations in the risks, as well as new risks highlight the ongoing disruption in the sector. We know how companies can unlock potential through effective risk management. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline. Following are the top 10 risks identified in the “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks for 2020” report: shift from the mere corroding of multilateral institutions and US alliances toward Download the ORX Operational Risk Horizon 2020 report to find out the top emerging and current operational risks for 2020 and beyond for banks and insurers. Talent and culture risks and technology and innovation risks dominate the top 10. Those six risks are: The presumption of this risk was that there is or will be a golden opportunity that will take the company to the next level. However, for the first time, we added a question about whether there were any highly dangerous risks that we missed. Economic conditions in markets we currently serve may significantly restrict growth opportunities for our organization 3. Opening the gates to cheap US agricultural goods could undermine Tory base support and stir public anger. Probability of bifurcated world: 60-40; North Korean defiance: Whether or not Trump agrees to another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, it will become clear in 2020 that Kim has made a strategic choice: he has no intention—despite US incentives—to dismantle his nuclear arsenal in the foreseeable future. Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4. ... For the first time in the history of the survey’s 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact. by Equally, slowing growth and the EU’s divisions in the wake of its uneven recovery from the 2008 financial meltdown make it an unlikely candidate to pull the world out of a recession. (39% of responses) Cyber risk tops the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time with … The EU, led by France and Germany, are increasingly wary of a UK which tries to undercut the single market by not adhering to the same environmental, labor, and other standards. 2020 Global Risk Study webcast Register now. | Insurance Consulting and Technology|Reinsurance, Menu, current location and language selection is United States English, use this menu to select a new location and language, Financial, Executive and Professional Risks (FINEX), 3 factors that make silent cyber risk so challenging for CROs, COVID-19 (coronavirus): An actuary’s perspective, Wild risks that could dramatically change the world, Summary of Natural Catastrophe Events 2019, Central bank/currency risk - total collapse of the financial system, Chasing yield with higher risk investments, Biodiversity loss decline of ecosystem services, Risk of sanction (EU/U.S.) Meanwhile preferential trade arrangements, bilateral (e.g. Most executives concerned about economic conditions. The great unraveling: With the demise of its dispute mechanism, the World Trade Organization—the lynchpin of seventy years of prosperity and a rules-based economic order—may also become defunct. Video The sharp rise in perceived danger from climate change indicates that many in the insurance industry believe that with evidence like the wildfires in Australia and California, that latency period has passed. 101 (re)insurance executives participated in the survey. the past year cross the finish line. Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig. End of US-ROK alliance, probability 50-50 (strong Department of Defense and Congressional pushback). We need a new strategy—one that is both ambitious and innovative, geared towards meeting the challenges and opportunities that the new decade brings. Cybercrime, disruptive technology and pricing/profit are the top three most dangerous risks, according to a new Willis Towers Watson survey of more than 100 insurance industry executives. Brexit will finally occur in the wake of the massive Tory victory by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Perhaps this risk has fallen so far because people are recognizing that success is more a result of a number of smaller good decisions and of hard work rather than that one golden opportunity. We have you covered! Interesting shifts in the 2020 top 10 risks. Trump has promised quick movement towards a US-UK trade deal, but will Johnson want to pay the price? The European Union, in the wake of the perceived success of its data privacy protection legislation, Trump’s ceaseless disparaging, and Beijing’s efforts to use economic enticements to split off eastern Europe, will accelerate moves to protect its economic and political sovereignty against the United States and China. Digital effectiveness remains in the top three risks and opportunities … As luck would have it, this is the only risk in the survey that had the exact same ranking as last year. TABLE OF CONTENTS Methodology Analysis Across Different Sizes of Organizations Analysis Across Geographic Regions Overall Level of Risk Concerns for 2020 Overview of Top 10 Risks Biggest and Smallest Changes in Individual Risks from Prior Year Analysis Across Industry Groups Executive Summary Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. Growing global populist and nationalist outbursts are likely Risk outlook: the world in 2020. : Who Governs the US? 1. Probability: 55-45. TURKEY. 2 Represents a new risk added to the 2020 survey. These are where cyberattackers inject code into a website — … Cyber incidents. This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary for its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. 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